Free tool · Monte Carlo

Prop Firm Challenge Simulator

Estimate how often a trading profile reaches the profit target before hitting the drawdown. Runs 10,000 simulated challenge paths in your browser.

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Your assumptions

Challenge type Win rate (%) Reward : risk Risk per trade (%) Phase 1 target (%) Phase 2 target (%) Max drawdown (%) Drawdown model Max trades / phase Challenge fee ($)

Model note: trades are independent outcomes using the entered win rate and R:R. “Simplified trailing” follows peak simulated equity; actual EOD/intraday firm mechanics can differ.

Simulation result

Pass probability—

Avg. trades to pass—

Expected attempts—

Expected fees—

Enter realistic assumptions, then run the simulation.

How to use the result

Stress-test risk

Increase risk per trade and watch how fast drawdown risk changes. Higher risk can shorten a winning run while making losing sequences more destructive.

Compare programs

Use the exact target and drawdown from the challenge you are considering, then compare the same strategy across multiple programs.

Don’t treat it as a forecast

The result is a simplified probability model, not a prediction of your future performance or a guarantee that a challenge will be passed.